Emerging Markets E-commerce Shift: Consumers Aged 45+ to Drive 51% of Online Spending Growth

A major demographic shift is set to redefine the global digital economy, as consumers aged 45 and older prepare to contribute $4.4 trillion in new online spending across emerging markets by 2036. This transition challenges the long-standing focus on younger, mobile-first demographics, forcing fintech providers and global merchants to prioritise local payment methods over traditional credit card rails.

What was announced

A joint study by World Data Lab (WDL) and EBANX reveals that consumers aged 45 and over will drive 51% of the total increase in annual online spending in emerging markets over the next decade. The fastest growth is expected among those aged 65 and older, whose digital expenditure is projected to rise by 12.2% annually. By 2036, this demographic shift will see the 45-64 age bracket spending $318 billion on gaming, streaming, and social media—nearly 25% more than the 15-29 age group currently associated with these sectors.

The study projects that 393 million new online buyers in these regions will be over the age of 45. While younger consumers remain vital, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, the overall centre of gravity is shifting due to a burgeoning middle class. Approximately 930 million adults are expected to join the middle class by 2036, defined as those spending more than $13 a day. This growth is concentrated in emerging economies, while the same income bracket is expected to shrink by 37 million in developed markets.

Geographically, China and India lead the expansion with projected increases of $4.7 trillion and $1.3 trillion, respectively. Significant growth is also noted in Brazil ($249 billion), Indonesia ($243 billion), and Mexico ($191 billion). Crucially, this expansion is decoupling from traditional credit cards. Only 20% of adults in emerging markets are expected to hold a credit card by 2036, leaving local payment methods (LPMs) such as Pix in Brazil, UPI in India, and Bre-B in Colombia as the primary gateways for two-thirds of new digital consumers.

"Over the next ten years, people aged 45 and over will add USD 4.4 trillion in online spending in emerging markets, half of all the growth. Some of them already shop on their phones and will keep doing so as they get older. Others will buy online for the first time in their fifties or sixties. Merchants who build their checkout only for a 25-year-old will miss both groups,"

Wolfgang Fengler, CEO of World Data Lab

The companies involved

EBANX is a global technology company specialising in payment services for emerging markets. The firm acts as a bridge for global merchants, allowing them to access consumers in high-growth regions by integrating hundreds of local payment methods. EBANX has established a significant presence in Latin America and has recently expanded its reach into other emerging territories, focusing on overcoming the low penetration of international credit cards through local debit cards, digital wallets, and instant payment rails.

World Data Lab is a data enterprise that provides strategic insights into consumer spending and demographic trends. By tracking the global middle class and shifting age demographics, WDL helps organisations understand where the next trillion dollars of consumption will originate. Together, these companies highlight a market where financial inclusion is driven by mobile-first innovation rather than traditional banking infrastructure, positioning emerging economies as the primary engine for the global digital economy's next decade of growth.

What FF News has reported before

FF News has closely tracked the rapid evolution of payment infrastructure in these high-growth regions. Recently, we covered how Colombia’s Bre-B Outpaces Brazil’s Pix with 83% Adoption in First Year, illustrating the speed at which local account-to-account rails are being embraced. EBANX has been a central figure in this narrative, as seen when NetEase Games Club Taps EBANX to Unlock Local Payments for Latin American Gamers, a move that aligns with the new data regarding older demographics entering the gaming space. Furthermore, the company’s geographic reach continues to broaden; EBANX Expands to Pakistan and Launches Native Apple Pay Decryption for Global Merchants. We also reported on the tangible revenue impact of these local integrations, such as when EBANX and Kunfupay Drive 46% Revenue Growth in Peru via One-Click Yape Checkout.

What this means

The industry must reckon with the fact that the "youth-only" focus of digital commerce is becoming a strategic liability. As the middle class expands in emerging markets, the most lucrative consumers are no longer just the Gen Z early adopters, but an older, more affluent demographic that is bypassing credit cards entirely. This places immense pressure on Western merchants who rely on legacy payment stacks. The "credit card gap" is not a temporary hurdle but a permanent structural feature of these economies. Success now depends on the ability to integrate fragmented local payment rails that cater to a silver economy that is increasingly mobile-savvy.